Wednesday November 6, 2024

• Markets opened in the red this morning, but are trying to make a recovery.
• Following yesterday’s election, the overnight market began responding as news outlets announced state-by-state results. Soybean futures dropped as Trump was declared the victor and saw at least a 16 cent drop this morning.
• The soybean market anticipates that a Trump presidency will likely bring new sanctions or tariffs against some of America’s largest trade partners, particularly China.
  • During his last term, Trump was known for his tough stance on China and trade. 
• The initial market reaction was valid, though things seem to be cooling off and prices are climbing back from earlier morning lows.
  • Any potential policy changes are still months away, post-inauguration.
  • Regardless of the election outcome, China has already been reducing its purchases of US supplies and its likely that trend will continue.
• The final USDA WASDE report of the crop year will be released Friday, trade is anticipating a slight decrease in corn yields. This adjustment is expected to impact carryout, though by how much is still unclear. See the trade estimates below.
• A flash sale of 124,000mt of corn was made to unknown for 2024/25 delivery.
• As of last Sunday, US corn harvest reached 91% complete. With supply nearly set, attention will shift toward demand. If there are no major disruptions in South American production, we will see some fierce competition in Spring of 2025.