Monday November 11, 2024

• Markets are starting off the week in the red
• After a cut in bean yields Friday Soybeans saw a nice spike higher and traded back above the 100 day moving average, but a large carryout is still weighing on the market. (See soybean chart below)
• Wheat is pushing lower following the improvement in weather conditions for both the US and Europe.
• Flash Sales
  • 107,00MT of soybeans to China for 24/25 delivery
  • 132,000MT of soybeans to unknown for 24/25 delivery 
  • 200,480MT of corn to unknown for 24/25 delivery
• WASDE Report
  • The soybean yield adjustment came as a bit of a surprise, the market was anticipating a yield drop for both corn and soybeans but was not expecting a 1.4 bpa bean yield reduction.
  • The USDA lowered crush expectations by 15mbu and exports by 25mbu. The bean carryout tightened by 80mbu vs last month. 
  • There wasn’t as much action on the corn side with a 0.7bpa drop to the yield estimate. Production was lowered by 60mbu and there was no changes on the demand side.
  • Wheat saw very few changes, there was a 3mbu increase to carryout.
• Argentina’s soybean crop was estimated at 8% planted last week which is on pace with their 10 year average. Corn planting was at 37% vs 25% this time last year. Argentina is the worlds 5th largest producer of corn and the 3rd largest exporter of corn. They are the worlds 3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of soybeans.
  • A few years ago China approved the phytosanitary measures to import Brazilian corn… we are now seeing similar steps being taken for Argentine corn.
• The Funds shifted to a net long position in the corn market last week. This is the first time the funds have held a net long position in the corn market since August 2023.