Wednesday November 20, 2024

• Markets are mostly red this morning. 
• It seems like we have entered the pre-holiday market lull, news is harder to come by and market interest is on the back burner for many growers. Inflationary pressures and geopolitical headlines seem to be the main price drivers. 
• Wheat seems to be the most volatile at the moment as it has the most headline risk.
  • Escalations in Ukraine/Russia has added risk premium back into the market.
  • Trump has stated he plans to quickly end the war once he returns to the White House, which may push Russia and Ukraine into peaceful talks.
• US ethanol exports are on track to set an all time yearly high. 
• Inflation and commodity prices are highly correlated. Many believe that a Trump presidency could lead to a return of inflation. This is making the trade question whether or not Inflation could drive commodity prices higher despite the bearish fundamental stories.
• Chinese president Xi Jinping is concerned about the economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs and the possibility that other countries may follow suit. Brazils agriculture minister has already stated Brazil will seize any opportunity if Trump clashes with China.