Tuesday December 3, 2024

  • Corn is down slightly, beans and wheat are making small gains this morning.
    • Soybean complex rebounds from lows on massive record domestic crush figures.
  • Flash Sale:  US exporters sold 134,000MT of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.
  • October USDA total soybean crush came in at a record 215.8MBU yesterday, above the 210.9MBU trade estimate and above the 186.5MBU posted in September.
  • A favorable South American weather pattern for the next two weeks with better rain to return to Argentina in the 10-15 day period.  Private groups continue to project a record Brazilian soybean crop.
  • Prewinter Russian winter wheat crop ratings show 37% of the crop is rated poor, the highest in a decade.
  • Southern Hemisphere 2024/25 wheat production is forecast to be up nearly 8MMT above last year which goes a long way towards filling the gap left by the 12MMT’s of curtailed wheat export quota from Russia.
  • Excessive rainfall during wheat harvest in Australia has left some farmers unable to collect their crops.
  • US Export inspections:
    • Soybean shipments declined slightly last week but remain well above last year’s levels.  2.1MMT were inspected for export, this is down 1.4% from the previous week.
    • Corn shipments were reported at 935,859MT, this is down 7.2% compared to the previous week.
    • Wheat shipments reported at 296,106MT, down 19% from the previous week.
  • The Brazilian real continues to weaken vs. the strong USD.  This is keeping prices in Brazil firm, and Brazilian farmers active sellers despite lower CBOT prices.  See chart below.