Wednesday December 4, 2024

• Markets are trading mostly lower this morning, trade volume continues to be light this week.
  • At this point It might take a big political announcement to see any big moves in the market.
• The strong US dollar is crawling back towards recent highs.
• Despite the small bounce we saw yesterday in the March 25 corn contract the market remains under pressure by weak demand from China and concerns about exports to Mexico under the Trump administration.
• News came out yesterday that the Biden administration won’t finalize the guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production credit before the end of the term. Leaving biofuels and SAF in limbo. Many are fearful Trumps plans will hinder progress for the biofuel incentive programs. 45Z is important to the long term biofuel outlook. If the guidance isn’t finalized this could weigh on the bean market.
• The EU has tentatively reached a deal to postpone a deforestation law. The law requires importers to provide complete traceability to ensure items like soy, beef and coffee don’t come from deforested areas.
• Brazilian soy production estimates continue to rise, but there is still plenty of time before now and harvest. Their production has already been pegged at a record high by the USDA.
  • Brazilian fob soybeans are now $20/mt cheaper than the US Gulf origins for March delivery.
• India’s winter is expected to be warmer with above average temperatures, threatening wheat yields.