Monday December 9, 2024

Markets are starting off the week in the green, with soybeans leading the gains.

Market Overview
Corn:
Over the past four weeks, old-crop corn prices have experienced a small but steady increase, supported by strong export demand. However, new-crop corn remains flat and is unlikely to see similar gains due to competition from South American corn, which will become available starting in April from Argentina and in July from Brazil, in addition to another US crop next fall. While ethanol plants are operating at high capacity, driving corn demand, ethanol stockpiles are building. This is expected to result in slower production rates during the winter months until gasoline demand picks back up in the summer.

In 2024, China was a significant buyer of Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop. However, total corn imports into China are projected to be half as much in 2025, due to increased domestic production and no growth in demand. This lack of growth in demand is due to a slowing economy and a plateau in population growth.

Soybeans:
Weather in Brazil and Argentina remains favorable and non-threatening as the crop progresses through the blooming and pod-filling stages. Prices are flat, supported by strong soybean oil export demand and high crush rates. Crush rates continue to set new records as new plants come online, ensuring steady demand throughout the year. However, this will not be enough to significantly reduce ending stocks.
We have seen an increase in soyoil sales due to reduced exports from Europe, which had smaller sunflower and rapeseed crops. This demand is expected to continue until new crop supplies become available this summer.

Wheat:
There is very little news in the wheat market. The North American crop is dormant and will be out of the news till spring. Russia, Argentina, Australia will supply global importers through winter. Though wheat futures are lower; due to the strength in the USD and weakness in other countries currencies, most importing countries are not seeing lower costs and therefore are not increasing purchases or building up stocks.