Thursday January 2, 2025

• The markets are starting off the new year mixed.
  • Corn is struggling to hold on to previous gains.
  • Old crop soybeans are slipping down but new crop beans are trying to hold on.
  • Wheat has lost over 7 cents and remains in the red.
• China has approved 5 more gene edited crop varieties, there are now 12 types of GMO beans, corn and cotton approved. This would increase their high yielding crops and could potentially reduce their need to import grains from Brazil and US in the long run. 
• On Tuesday the March 2025 bean contract traded and closed above the 50 day moving average for the first time since mid November. The 100 day moving average is $10.19. The increase we have seen in the bean market hasn’t been led by one solid fundamental story but seems to be a result of the meal market and short coverings. The question is if we will see this momentum continue now that we’re into 2025. It is hard for a rally to continue when we are lacking a solid fundamental story.
  • Global soybean supplies are already at high levels and are expected to grow in the first few months of this year.
  • It seems like every week we are seeing reports of a higher soybean crop estimate from Brazil.
• Winter Wheat conditions will worsen in Central Russia and Volga in January. Warmer than usual weather and excess moisture causes sprouts to keep growing during the winter. 
• The big January USDA report is looming, it will be released January 10th.