Monday January 6, 2025

• The market is making a recovery this morning after last weeks losses.
  • Last Friday we saw technical failures for both corn and soybeans.
  • The sell-off was pretty harsh, with no change to the Argentine weather story its believed the sell off was a result of the funds positioning ahead of this weeks report.
  • The March 2025 corn contract is seeing resistance at $4.60 futures and is struggling to push past it. The December 25 contract has remained range bound as the “acre debate” picks up.
• This Fridays USDA report will bring the usual monthly revisions, the final US crop production numbers, key Dec 1st grain stocks, winter wheat seeding and more.
  • Trade estimates will be out early this week and we will touch on them then.
• Concern continues to build over dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil. The Commodity Weather Group sees Argentine corn and soybean moisture deficits getting up to 40% of crop areas in the next two weeks.
  • Abundant moisture in the later part of 2024 has kept Argentine crops progressing well. The next two weeks will be when we begin to see the impact of this hot and dry weather.
• As the Argentine weather story develops its important to keep in mind that these rallies will struggle to be sustained amid a record Brazilian soybean crop and slower Chinese demand for soybeans.
  • It is being predicted that a seasonal top will be formed the first half of Jan, ahead of Brazils soybean harvest.
• There is some speculation that the stronger markets this morning are due to potential changes to Trumps Tariffs. Trumps team is considering sector specific tariffs on critical imports instead of the universal tariffs promised during his campaign.