Friday January 10, 2025

• Mixed markets this morning
• Today is the big day… the much anticipated USDA report will be released at noon. Some analysts have been alluding that the report will contain some surprises. The question is whether or not these surprises will be in our favour.
  • There are some predictions that we may see a reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, if realized we would see reduced carryout projections.
• This week we saw some bearish headlines… Brazil has started harvesting what is said to be a record soybean crop,  Argentina’s dry forecast may no longer be a story we can hold on to as their major crop areas are set to receive 2-3 inches of rain over the next two weeks, and export sales had another bad week.
  • Is this the beginning of the end for soybean futures?
  • It seems like it is hard to grasp onto news that is bullish soybeans. Hopefully the market can find some support from todays USDA report.
• Take a peek at the export sales numbers from last week below, comparing the estimates to the actual number gives you an idea on how not great they were. With the actual sales coming in well below the lower end of the estimates for some commodities. 
• A winter storm moved through the corn belt last week delivering some much needed precipitation to the area. 
• Argentina Crop Conditions were released, corn conditions declined slightly but are still above the 3 and 5 year averages. Soybean conditions also declined but still remain above the averages.