Thursday January 16, 2025

• Markets are treading downwards this morning with soybeans leading the losses.
  • March corn futures seems to have found some resistance at 4.80.
  • Soybeans are taking back their post USDA rally and an improved Argentine forecast is adding pressure.
• Ethanol demand was down week over week as total stocks increased by 860k barrels. Stocks are just below last year’s levels but within the 3-year range. Production continues to run well ahead of last year’s pace. (See image below)
• December NOPA crush climbed to an all-time high at 206.6MBU.  Crush year to date is at 777mbu, 5% ahead if the last year’s pace and on target to meet estimates. It seems this bullish news has already been factored into the market as USDA is projecting a record amount of crush.
• Yesterday the Rosario Grains Exchange cut their 2024/25 Argentine corn production estimates from 50-51mmt to 48mmt due to unfavorable weather. They also said soybean output would be “below” previous forecasts.
• Canada has announced it is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of US products if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada.