Friday January 24, 2025
- Markets are mostly lower this morning.
- The market continues to be volatile as it reacts to headlines.
- Corn and soybean prices are reacting to Argentine export cuts.
- Argentina is temporarily lowering its export tax on grain and oilseed products, this will encourage Argentine farmers to sell over the next few months to take advantage of the tax break.
- Agriculture Secretary nominee Brooke Rollins had her confirmation hearing yesterday. The grain market saw this hearing as friendly which contributed to yesterdays gains.
- Rollins stated she would be a “champion for all fuels”.
- Late planting of Safrinha corn is a concern as central Brazils dry season begins in March, everyday counts as they need to get the corn planted and established with moisture.
- Wheat in the US and Europe is cheaper than corn and we are seeing an increase usage in feed formulas.
- US SRW sales have been slow/non-existent, the sales remain below the seasonal pace needed to meet USDA estimates (See chart below).
- Weekly ethanol stocks saw a week/week increase, daily production was up 4k barrels/day.
- Argentine crop conditions continued to decline this week. With corn falling to 30% g/e, this is now below last years average, the 3 year average, and the 5 year average. Soybean conditions declined to 22% g/e vs 44% this time last year.