Monday February 10,2025

• The market is mixed to start off the week.
  • Favorable South American weather and new US tariff threats weigh on the market.
• China continues to book shipments from Brazil and Argentina with 10-15 cargoes traded last week.
  • US soybean purchases usually go into China’s state reserves, while Brazilian beans are pushed straight into crush plants.
  • Sinograin a Chinese government agency has started booking Argentine shipments for April-May. This news added to the speculation that a near term deal between US and China is unlikely.
• The funds added to their length in the corn market last week, but didn’t end up being as long as the trade had expected. Funds weren’t as long as expected in soybeans either.
  • The funds are still net short for the wheat market, this may be one of the more positive stories for the complex.
• The USDA will release its monthly crop production and WASDE report on Tuesday. Trade is expecting a small reduction in old crop ending stock projections for US corn and soybeans and global estimates.
  • This report is for old crop, the first official version of the 25/26 balance sheet will not be provided until May. 
• This morning there was a flash sale of 365,000MT of corn to Mexico for delivery in 24/25.
• South American weather is becoming more favorable. Crop prospects remain strong as Brazilian soybeans leave the field and head to the ports.