Tuesday March 11th, 2025

• Corn and beans are making small gains and wheat is down this morning ahead of the USDA March S&D report.
  • Typically this report is uneventful but traders will be watching to see if the USDA adjusts its data to reflect potential changes in trade policies.
  • Strong corn demand this marketing year suggests that corn carryout could possibly tighten.
• Export Inspections:
  • US corn shipments were strong last week, well above expectations with 71.6MBU inspected, Japan taking the bulk of the corn and Mexico following closely behind.
  • Soybean inspections were near the top end of estimates with 31MBU inspected.  The beans were majorly destined for China, with Indonesia, Germany and Egypt taking most of the remainder.
  • Wheat inspections well below estimates coming in at 7.9MBU.  This now puts wheat 4% behind the pace needed to meet USDA expectations. 
• Brazil’s soybean harvest is going well sitting at 61% complete.  There are some concerns about soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul with the hot and dry conditions. 92% of Brazil’s second corn crop has been planted.
• Canola prices are taking a major hit (closed limit down yesterday) after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal and oil.
• President Trump plans to throw an additional 25% tariff (50% total) on steel and aluminum coming into US from Canada.
• Money flowing into and out of CBOT grains now changes with each new daily tariff headline.
• Flash Sales:
  • US exporters sold 126,000MT of corn to Japan for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • US exporters sold 195,000MT of soybeans to unknown for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.