Monday March 24th, 2025

• The market is starting off the week in the red. South American rains, ceasefire talks and tariff concerns are weighing on grains ahead of key reports.
• Trump had suggested there may be some flexibility in his upcoming reciprocal tariffs. His administration indicated that April 2nd will be the announcement of reciprocal tariffs against any country that has tariffs against US goods.
  • Trump stated that “people are coming to me… and a lot of people are asking for exceptions” he went on to add that “once you do that for one, you have to do that for all”
• The Funds reduced their net long position in the corn market last week. Large money managers were net sellers of 28k contracts. The Funds were also sellers of soybean and wheat contracts.
  • Fund movement has been interesting this month as we head toward month end and the March 31st plantings report. It appears managed money is moving into a more neutral position. This puts more emphasis on the volatility we might see following the report.  
• WEATHER:
  • Parts of Russia and Ukraine have been dry, but the Black Sea weather forecast offers improved rainfall after April 2nd. The rains will be timely but they’ll need much more. The area had a snowless winter.
  • Near to below normal temperatures and near above normal rainfall will benefit Northern Brazil and Argentine crops in the next two weeks.
    • The rain will help Brazilian winter corn following weeks of dryness.
    • The rain in Argentina will slow the early corn/soybean harvest. 
  • Southern Brazil will see shower chances this week, this rain is too late to aid soybeans but will help Parana’s winter corn crop.
  • The US plains will have limited rainfall over the next 12 days.