Tuesday March 25, 2025

• Grains are lower this morning, trading range-bound and the bulls are lacking ammunition for a sustained rally.  All eyes are on the upcoming planting and stocks report Monday.
  • The US winter wheat rating is holding despite a building Southern Plains drought situation.  
  • Trump tariff threats constantly looming and the reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd.
  • Russia, Ukraine and the US will continue cease-fire peace meetings today in Saudi Arabia.
  • Brazilian soybean harvest progresses, 77% complete.
• Export Inspections
  • Corn shipments declined last week but remain strong at 57.6MBU (down 14% compared to the previous week), YTD shipments are running 9% ahead of the USDA.
  • Soybeans saw 30.2MBU shipped on the week (up 25% from the prior week) with more than half going to China.  Shipments have slowed to seasonal levels, currently running 2% ahead of the needed pace, see chart below.
  • Wheat shipments were steady this week at 17.8MBU, YTD exports are 2% behind the USDA.
• The forecast for Russia’s wheat crop has improved, IKAR raised its baseline forecast by 2%, from their previous estimate.
• The US is proposing to impose steep fines on Chinese operated and/or Chinese built vessels that dock in the US.  These fines would have massive implications on transportation costs for US grain.  The timeline for the implementation of these fines wouldn’t go into effect until November 2025.