Monday April 7th, 2025

  • Markets are starting off the week in the green, with wheat and beans leading the gains.
    • The positive turn in the market is believed to be a result of the latest Trump headlines… “Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries but China”.
      • Since writing this point CNBC has stated that the White House has said that the 90 day pause is ‘fake news’. 
    • We should see more fundamental news this week with the crop progress report coming out this afternoon and the release of the April S&D report on Thursday. 
  • We saw soybean futures fall sharply on Friday after China announced retaliatory tariffs. Futures fell to their lowest level this year, the May 25 contract fell nearly 35 cents.
  • The Midwest has received historical levels of rainfall. The storms which began Wednesday have resulted in 16 confirmed fatalities. Officials have declared many flash flood emergencies from Texas to Ohio.
    • The large amounts of rainfall has halted spring planting and is causing winter crops to stand in water.
    • About 1/3 of the US’s SRW crop is at risk. 
  • The Funds increased their net-long position in the corn market last week. Large money managers were net buyers of 55k corn contracts.
    • The funds were net buyers of 30k soybean contracts and net sellers of 10k wheat contracts.
  • China has indicated that it is not backing down from a trade fight with the US.