Thursday April 10th, 2025

• Grains are mixed this morning, beans and corn are pushing higher, wheat is lower.
  • Corn continues to make gains among a wildly volatile marketplace, with May futures clearing chart resistance ahead of expected USDA carryout cuts.
  • May bean futures are filling the gap made last week, see chart below.  November futures have not reached that gap but heading the the right direction this morning.
• Tariff News
  • The tariff retaliation from China yesterday pushed President Trump to raise the tariff charged to China to 125%, effective immediately.  
  • A 90 day pause on all previously planned reciprocal tariffs for any country who has not retaliated.  During this period, the reciprocal rate will be temporarily reduced to 10% and does not apply to sector tariffs.
• Flash Sale: USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000MT of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.
• The stock market had one of its largest rallies in history on Wednesday triggered by President Trumps announcement of a 90 day pause.
• 3MMT of US soybeans are scheduled to be shipped to China by the end of May, with the majority of the cargos purchased by Sinograin.
• USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report here shortly.
  • Traders expect the USDA to reduce its projection of corn ending stocks for the current marketing year, likely due to a perceived increase in the export projection.
  • No significant changes are expected for beans and wheat ending stocks.
• US ethanol stocks rose to historically high levels last week.
• Weekly DOE total fuel ethanol production declined fairly sharply for the second time in the last three weeks.
• The Canadian dollar is also maintaining its upward momentum today.