Thursday May 1st, 2025

• The CBOT is mixed this morning, wheat is up, beans are down slightly and corn is flat at the moment.
  • US dollar has steadied and pressured crude oil and the commodities all week.
  • Corn futures posted a rebound on Wednesday following Tuesday’s collapse.  The corn usage metrics remain strong (and less dependent on China), putting pressure on carryout.
  • Favorable Central US planting weather with possible extra corn acres to be seeded will cap rallies for Dec corn futures (new crop corn).
  • The wheat market remains under pressure, sitting near contract lows, some traders are discussing a “narrow” wheat vs corn spread as a possible friendly case for the wheat market.
  • Beans stay under pressure on the lagging US export demand.
• Flash Sale:
  • US exporters sold 120,000MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery.
• China is heading into a 5 day Labor Holiday (May1st -May 5th).
• China’s manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in April.  The decline reflects the impact of the ongoing trade war with the US.
• Ethanol output increased to the highest level in a month, while inventories declined.  
• Russian spring wheat planting is off to a solid start with more areas seeded than last year.  The dry and warm weather conditions contributing to the rapid progress.  
• The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, making the first decline since 2022, see image below.