Tuesday May 13, 2025
- CBOT grain futures are weaker, soybeans take profits off highs, wheat weighs heavily as production continues to grow sinking to a fresh 5 year low.
- Soybean futures surged yesterday, the July25 contract gaining nearly 20 cents, fueled by constructive US-China trade talks on the weekend, which led to a significant 90-day tariff reduction.
- Corn retreats on active planting progress and favorable weather.
- Traders doubt US corn/soybean export forecasts unless US/China can strike a trade deal.
- US Planting Progress:
- Corn planting is progressing well, up from 40% to 62% complete this week.
- Soybean planting has advanced from 30% to 48% this week. Well above the 37% 5 year average.
- Spring wheat planting remains ahead of compatibles at 66% complete.
- Winter wheat conditions rose another 3 points 54% G/E, up from 50% LY and the 42% 5 year average.
- USDA Report:
- Soybean futures found support after the USDA pegged 24/25 soybean ending stocks at 350 million bushels, down from the April estimate of 380 million bushels and below the expected 370 million.
- Soybean exports estimate increased, leading to a lower carryout and lower new crop carry in value.
- Wheat ending stocks came in at 920 million bushels, significantly higher than the expected 860 million. A notable upwards revision was made to the forecast for its global wheat ending stocks. In summary: wheat production is up and demand is just not keeping up.
- A Bullish corn carryout yesterday, at least compared to trade expectations. Another corn export increase this month took ending old crop stocks down another 50 million bushels. See image below.
- Corn acres are up and trendline yields, leading to a large production. Ethanol and export demand holding flat for next year VS this year.
- The lower carry in value for next year kept carryout below 2 billion bushels at 1.8.
- Soybean futures found support after the USDA pegged 24/25 soybean ending stocks at 350 million bushels, down from the April estimate of 380 million bushels and below the expected 370 million.
- Export Inspections:
- US corn shipments declined last week but remain strong, 1.2MMT of corn were inspected for export.
- Soybean shipments came in at 426,077MT, a +28% increase from the prior week.
- Wheat shipments were reported at 405,170MT, this is -1.6% from the previous week.