Wednesday May 28th, 2025

Wheat is up, corn and beans are down this morning.
- Wheat recovered overnight after sharp losses yesterday. Disappointing crop progress numbers support the rebound.
- Crop ratings came in lower than expected. North Dakota (lack of May heat) and Ohio (excessive rainfall) bring down the averages.
- Corn and spring wheat ratings are below expectations.
US Crop Progress/Conditions:
- Corn is 87% planted, 68% of the crop is rated G/E compared to an expected 73%.
- Spring wheat is 87% planted and conditions are only 45% G/E, well below the 71% G/E expectation.
- Winter wheat conditions at 50% G/E, 3 points below trade expectations.
- Beans are 76% planted, ahead of the 5 year average.
Decreased exports to China and stiff competition from Russia into the Middle East are leaving Australia with more carryout of wheat. Australia shipped 546,000MT of wheat to China during the Oct-Mar period, down from 2.9 Million tons during the same period in 23/24.
In spite of the massive fund short in corn, the CZ5 contract found its way lower yesterday, falling through the 200 day moving average.
Export Inspections– Corn and beans are lower this week but all three running ahead of pace:
- Corn came within trade estimates at 55mbu.
- Beans at a seasonally low 7.2mbu.
- Wheat surpassed expectations at 20.6mbu.
Drought conditions are expected to ease across southern China, with the heavy rainfall in the forecast.