Monday June 23rd, 2025

• The grain market is starting off the week in the red. 
• A weaker Canadian dollar at the end of last week helped to firm up soybean basis. 
• Wheat futures had a good rally last week but as US and European futures rise, cash export markets, especially out of Russia have been flat (see chart below). For the rally to continue export sales from the US are needed.
  • A firming market on the back of speculative buying could just lead to short term gains.
  • The worry in the wheat market is increasing global supplies without meaningful improvement in import demand.
  • Harvest in the US is advancing and yields have been very good thus far.
• The corn market continues to trade sideways as the main focus has been US weather. Weather for the corn crop has been very good. The heat in the forecast has been short lived and paired with rain, so there are no concerns at this point.
• The Argentine corn crop is 50% harvested and the Brazilian Safrinha corn crop is 5% harvested. From now until December there will be an abundant amount of corn produced.
• The soybean rally stalled out on Friday as attention turned back to crop production and favorable weather. The November 2025 contract was able to reach its highest level since early February and was close to posting a fresh calendar year high before taking a downward turn. 
• Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend as the US struck three Iranian nuclear sites. The outside market and commodities had a muted response to the news.