Wednesday June 25th, 2025

• The downward trend continues again today, red across the board for grains.
  • July corn futures have dropped to their lowest since November, pressured by favorable growing conditions across the US Corn Belt and a projected record sized Safrinha crop.
  • Wheat futures are trending lower for the fourth consecutive session as harvest activity intensifies across key growing regions in the Plains and Midwest. Better-than-expected yields are adding bearish sentiment to the market.  Peak harvest for the US winter wheat is expected next week.
  • July soybean futures are expected to test their early June low at 10.3250.
• Brazilian Agroconsult released their updated crop projections yesterday and now is estimating that Brazil will harvest a record sized Safrinha crop at 123.3MMT.  This is an increase of 10.4MMT month/month and is 20.4MMT above last year’s output.  Good growing conditions, timely rains in April/May, expanded seeding and record yields all contributing to the increase.
  • The large crop will likely cause some logistic issues as Brazil doesn’t have the infrastructure in place to handle a crop this size.
  • If this is a record crop, this would push Brazil to export corn tonnages through February.  This is when the US would typically capture world demand.
  • The corn export program has been slow thus far, with just 6.7MMT committed for export VS 7.2MMT last year and 12.1MMT in 2023.
• Fed chair Powell stated that they will hold off any further rate cuts until they see the impacts of the tariffs on the economy.
• USDA will release the June Stocks/Seeding report on Monday.  See image below for pre-report estimates.
• USDA reported a Flash Sale of 630,000MT of corn to Mexico, 554,400MT for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year and 75,600 for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.