Wednesday February 12, 2020
- Yesterdays report turned out to be just as unexciting as expected
- See results below
- Soybeans seeing the most strength out of the report seeing a smaller carryout number due to an expected increase in exports – despite the lack of recent Chinese purchases
- Corn had some shifting around in demand but ended up with no net change, leaving carryout untouched – some question this as corn shipments have failed to reach USDA targets and were looking for a decrease in export demand
- Wheat saw a small increase in exports as well – likely the most justifiable as they are the only commodity on track to hitting USDA numbers
- Traders optimistic about signs the coronavirus has peaked
- exponential growth curve of the number of cases has started declining drastically in the last few days
- However – China did recently change the definition of a “confirmed case” to not include those who test positive for the virus but are not showing any symptoms even though with the disease you can be contagious for days before beginning to show signs of sickness so that could be impacting the growth of new “confirmed cases”
| USDA 2019/2020 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Corn | 1.892 | 1.864 | 1.788-1.942 | 1.892 |
| Soybeans | 0.425 | 0.443 | 0.320-0.520 | 0.475 |
| Wheat | 0.940 | 0.954 | 0.934-0.975 | 0.965 |
| USDA 2019/2020 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Corn | 296.84 | 297.19 | 295.0-299.5 | 297.40 |
| Soybeans | 98.86 | 96.90 | 94.2-99.3 | 96.67 |
| Wheat | 288.03 | 287.44 | 285.0-288.8 | 288.08 |
| USDA 2019/2020 South American Production (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Argentine Corn | 50.00 | 50.00 | 48.0-51.0 | 50.00 |
| Arg. Soybeans | 53.00 | 53.15 | 52.5-54.0 | 53.00 |
| Brazilian Corn | 101.00 | 100.85 | 99.0-101.0 | 101.00 |
| Braz. Soybeans | 125.00 | 123.65 | 122.5-125.0 | 123.00 |