Friday December 11, 2020

• Well this December report lived up to the reputation of most Dec reports of being a non-event – beans did lose gains from earlier in the day but closed just below unchanged on the day 
• Zero changes were made on the corn balance sheet and the only update made on soys was an increase in crush numbers
• No adjustments were made on the export numbers which was a bit of a surprise and will give market optimists something to talk about for the next month hoping they will see an increase in export numbers by January and further tighten the stocks
• Overall the report gave little indication to the market, however re enforcing that at these levels of carryout prices will remain fairly supported 
• Wheat gaining some momentum sparked by concerns in Russian weather 
• Carryout numbers are (predicting) to be the lowest carryout in that time frame – just below 2015/16 carryout numbers
  • Tight carryout numbers does not guarantee higher prices – BUT does lead to more volatility in the market
  • A threat to a growing area with a large amount of beans in the bank is not as scary as a threat when there aren’t many extra to give out
  • Also a tight carryout is different today than it was 5 years ago – Brazil in that time has surpassed America in soybean production so the U.S. being low is not as concerning on world supply as it once was