Thursday April 18, 2024

• Price or Roll day for basis contracts over the May futures is fast approaching
• Rosario Grains Exchange looking to further reduce its estimate for Argentina’s corn crop
  • Leaf hoppers have been present since March and causing noticeable damage
  • Significant losses (40-50%) are being reported in areas when usually the loss would only amount to 5%, for the average year
  • Argentina corn is 15% harvested
• The contrast between Conab/Rosario and USDA estimates table is below
• Cheap soybeans flowing out of Brazil
  • Brazil is expected to ship more than half a million bushels this month alone
  • Harvest and the Real bring weakness in Brazil’s basis
  • Spread between the SK and SN futures have widened out
• US ethanol stocks down, lowest production week since January
  • Daily production down 73K barrels/day this week
• President Joe Biden calling for a hike in tariff rates from 7.5% to 25% on Chinese steel and aluminum imports
• Crude oil prices falling below the $82 level after approaching the $88 last week, reflecting the conflict in the middle east
  • Israel is expected to respond to Iran’s weekend barrage of missiles and drones
• Wheat futures higher on the overnight with concerns about the crops in the US