Monday May 13, 2024

• Russia Wheat
  • SovEcon on Friday cut their 2024 winter wheat production estimates, from 93.0mmt in April to 89.6mmt, also down from 92.8mmt last year. 
• Weather
  • Rains mostly favoured the southern plains over the weekend, with some in the southern belt today and eastern corn belt tomorrow. 
• USDA Recap
  • On Friday the markets closed in the green and we managed to close above new crop prices that many have been waiting for.
  • Corn carry out for both old and new crop are less than expected which helped corn bounce back to recent highs.
  • South American production had some downward adjustments but they were smaller than expected.
  • The US wheat carryout for the next year is forecasted to be higher but the market continues to trade Russian production issues
• Funds
  • On Friday the CFTC reported that the managed money had drastically reduced their short position in the corn and bean markets. As of last Tuesday corn sits at 93k contracts net short down from 200k contracts and beans sitting at 80k contracts net short. 
• China
  • Soybean Crush margin for China is estimated at 29.8mmt this year, up from 28.3mmt a year ago. The additional demand has impacted the soymeal stock increasing it to an estimated 500mmt or 75% higher than last year. Outlook to remains strong for crush, however with lowering feed demand it will weigh down the positive margin.