Tuesday May 14, 2024

• The July 24 wheat contract hit 8 month highs yesterday afternoon. The continued rally was still a result of Russian production concern.
• The wheat market broke through some key technical indicators last week. The contract has made a $1.40+ move in the past month (check out the wheat chart below)
• Corn still sits near the highs made yesterday as US planting makes progress, but still faces a wet forecast
• Soybeans are stuck dealing with technicals, and news from the Biden Administration about the lack of change to tariffs on used cooking oil from China (Please see the green box below for a more detailed explanation on how used cooking oil tariffs have affected bean prices)
• For the next 6 weeks attention will stay on Russia’s main production areas
  • Russians ag research agency officially lowered the Russian wheat production forecast for 24/25 delivery due to the severe frosts. It was projected that the crop will be down to 86mmt from the previous estimate of 91mmt 
  • The USDA report that came out Friday projected the wheat crop at 88mmt but it is unclear if the recent frost event was factored into that estimate
• Export inspections were in line with estimates this week
  • Corn saw 36.9mbu shipped, the lowest weekly total seen since January
  • Soybeans continue to have a slow shipment pace 
  • Wheat continues to run ahead of the needed pace 
• The USDA estimated corn planting at 49% complete this week, this is up 13 points from last week but still behind the 5 year average. Soybeans were at 35% planted this week keeping pace with the 5 year average. Wheat’s good/excellent rating remained solid at 50%, which is above the 5 year average