Thursday September 12, 2024

• Grains are starting the report day off in the green, soybeans leading the way, followed by wheat then corn
• USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report at noon, all eyes on US yield changes
  • Funds are coming in today carrying heavy short positions on corn and beans
  • Average analyst expectation is to see a slight cut in US corn yields (-0.7bpa) and soybeans left unchanged
  • Drier weather in the far eastern Corn Belt has led some traders to believe yields will be reduced
  • The chat below illustrates the historical USDA corn and soybean yield changes for the past 13 years
• Russian grain exports are expected to decline this year
  • The Rostov region (accounting for more than 11% of Russia’s wheat production) is anticipated to decrease 30% this year from early spring frosts and drought
  • The absence of TD RIF (the country’s largest grain trader) will also have an impact on exports
• 60% of US grain exports are shipped down the Mississippi for export and the low water levels are cutting into farmer profits. Grain shipments declined 17% this week compared to the previous.  Freight rates in St. Louis are up 57%.  
• US inflation has fallen to its lowest level since February 2021
• US Ethanol production has jumped to a three-week high